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model output, explained. 2026 nfl preseason analysis.
2026 fantasy draft strategy: the model ran the numbers so we didn't have to argue about it
zero-RB, robust-RB, elite-TE, BPA: the model backtested six draft strategies across six seasons. one of them wins. the others produce second-place finishes with good vibes.
2026 rookie draft guide: vor, adp, and who the model actually trusts
not every year-1 breakout candidate is real. the model ran 2026 rookies through a two-stage projection: draft capital, then landing-spot-adjusted fantasy points. here's who has signal and who has hype.
DST rankings 2026: what the model says, where the market is wrong, and why it matters
DST year-over-year correlation is 0.31. the market prices DSTs like it's 0.80. the model exploits that gap. SOS, coaching continuity, and turnover rate drive the rankings.
kicker rankings 2026: what the model actually says
the model ranks kickers on 40+ yard attempt share, team implied totals, and coach factor. not on name recognition. Harrison Butker is K1.
the injury return problem (and what the data actually says)
58 players are returning from significant injury in 2026. the standard model misprices all of them. the injury-return pathway adds confidence tiers, recovery factors, and honest uncertainty to each projection.
2026 pre-season pre-draft positional rankings: full model release (free)
full model release for 2026 preseason: 412 players (QB/RB/WR/TE), confidence scores, injury-return pathway, rookie projections. the hot takes the model is forcing us to say out loud.